Why Alabama Will Be No. 1 Next Week

As we head into the midway point of the season, the time for wild speculation and hypothesizing is over. We’re down to the real nuts and bolts of the season, the moments and decisions that will determine the story of the 2011 season. This Sunday, the BCS poll will make its 2011 debut, with the Harris Interactive Poll and the dreaded BCS computer aggregate joining the USA Today Coaches’ Poll in determining the two teams that will play for the national championship.

Right now, there are two polls that matter: the Coaches’ Poll, which has Oklahoma ranked first followed by LSU and Alabama, and the AP Poll, which has LSU and Alabama ahead of the Sooners. Alabama has yet to hold the top spot this season in either poll but after this weekend, I believe that will change.

First of all, I should mention that whether Alabama is ranked first, second or third is largely a matter of pride, perception and trivia at this point. If Alabama were to win the rest of their games, there’s no question whatsoever that they will be granted a spot in the national title game.

But that’s not to say that being No. 1 doesn’t matter. There’s a certain cache that comes with being No. 1 as opposed to, say, No. 3. Your opponents play a little harder. Recruits take a little more notice. And there’s also a certain swagger that your players seem to adopt, almost as if there’s some kind of hormone that makes its way through your system once you become the top-ranked team. Bottom-line: it shouldn’t really matter if you’re No. 1 but because football is an art and not a science, it does matter.

That said, there’s a very good chance that this metaphysical issue will be something the Crimson Tide will be dealing with after Week 6, despite not being ranked No. 1 in either of the two current polls. Here are the reasons why:

1. Alabama has picked up substantial momentum among the media, particularly the voters in the AP Poll who tend to place a high value on week-to-week performance, as opposed to the Coaches who are very hesitant to shuffle their preseason rankings unless someone at the top loses a game. The Harris Interactive Poll waits until midseason to begin voting, ostensibly out of a desire to not be influenced by preseason hype. But the dirty little secret about the Harris Poll is that they essentially base their rankings off the AP Poll. If Alabama continues to strengthen its momentum among the press, they’ll likely end up very near if not at the top of the Harris and AP Polls.
2. While we can’t predict with absolute certainty how this weekend will affect the computer aggregate, ESPN’s Brad Edwards on Wednesday released the current computer aggregate rankings for the BCS, which have Alabama ranked first, LSU third and Oklahoma seventh! With a win over Texas this weekend, Oklahoma will likely move up slightly in those rankings but that’s enough of a gap to potentially drop the Sooners all the way to third in the actual BCS rankings.
3. With Oklahoma not likely to be an issue for Alabama, LSU becomes the primary competition for the top spot. Last weekend, Alabama pummeled Florida so badly that many believe it’s a forgone conclusion that LSU will similarly destroy the Gators this weekend in Baton Rouge. And therein lies the problem for the Tigers. Expectations couldn’t be higher and while Florida is battered, they are still one of the fastest teams in college football and will have had a full week to come up with an offensive gameplan that doesn’t include John Brantley, something they didn’t have the luxury of doing in the second half against Alabama. When it comes to the polls, LSU is in a classic no-win situation. With just one week of separation, it’s a guarantee that voters are going to compare LSU’s performance against Florida to Alabama’s performance last week. Either the Tigers win by at least the same margin or they risk being viewed as inferior to Alabama.

Personally, I don’t think Florida will play nearly as poorly against LSU as it did against Alabama. They weren’t prepared for the physical assault the Tide thrust upon them and they were even less prepared to deal with the loss of their quarterback. With a week to let those concepts settle in, I expect to see an improved performance from Florida in Baton Rouge, and if LSU is struggling to put the Gators away in the second half, look for voters to jump Alabama over LSU on their ballots.

Nick Saban will be the first to tell everyone next Monday how irrelevant it is that Alabama is the new No. 1 team in the nation. Nonetheless, it will make headlines.

Gus Malzahn & The Death of Defense at Auburn

In Week One, it was a little embarrassing but overlooked in the end thanks to a little last-second dose of that “Auburn Magic”.

In Week Two, it was easy to look past because the Tigers had just pulled off a mild upset and were now 1-0 in the SEC.

But after Week Three’s bitter and disappointing loss on the road at Clemson, it finally became impossible even for Auburn fans to continue ignoring it - Auburn’s defense is bad. Really bad.

In fact, it’s on pace to potentially finish as the worst defense in the history of college football. As Kevin Scarbinsky points out today in his Birmingham News column, the Tigers’ 534 yards per game average is likely to rise once Auburn faces SEC juggernauts South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida and LSU in consecutive weeks. It’s completely feasible that it could climb past the 1993 Maryland defense’s record of 553 yards per game. And while the total defense has been abysmal for Auburn, firmly among the five worst in the nation, it’s the points allowed per game that should really be disturbing to Auburn fans. At just over 36.5 points per game, the Auburn defense is putting their offense in the precarious position of needing to score at least six touchdowns to secure a victory, no easy feat even for an offense as prolific as Gus Malzahn’s.

And so as is usually the case with a team struggling on one side of the ball and not on the other, Auburn fans are ready to can defensive coordinator Ted Roof. There’s no question Roof’s defenses at Auburn have been nearly as bad during his first two seasons as they are this year. And yes, his defenses were bad at Duke too, though judging a coach’s performance at Duke is like judging a three-year-old at doing algebra - they just don’t have the tools to succeed in that situation. At Auburn though, Roof has had plenty of talent, including a first round draft pick in Nick Fairly a year ago.

But this isn’t just Ted Roof’s defense. For one thing, the head coach at Auburn is a guy who at one point in the last decade was considered maybe the finest defensive mind in the game. Gene Chizik has said he has major influence over the defensive game planning at Auburn and even a hand in coaching players individually during practice. You won’t find me putting Chizik on my top five list of the game’s best coaches but I hardly find it believable that he could suddenly forget how to coach defense.

One thing that I haven’t heard many folks consider is the possibility that the root of this problem lies not Auburn’s defense, but rather in its offense. Gus Malzahn is probably the most popular man in Auburn now that Cam Newton is in Carolina and it’s hard to see how the man who has led the Auburn offense to its best output ever could be havin a negative impact on the program as a whole. But let’s look at some numbers.

Auburn currently leads the nation in total snaps taken on defense and they lead most of the SEC in that category by a pretty sizable margin, and just ahead of Tulsa, Gus Malzahn’s former employer (more on that later). That statistic has something to do with Auburn’s inability to get off the field on defense but it also has an awful lot to do with Auburn’s style of offense. Gus Malzahn’s fast paced attack almost ensures that Auburn’s opponents will have more offensive possessions per game than average, thus meaning the Auburn defense will have to take the field more often than most other defenses in the nation.

This has been the case since Malzahn’s first day at Auburn. In 2008, Tommy Tuberville’s worst Auburn team of his tenure allowed an average of 18 points per game. One year later with Malzahn and Roof in tow, Gene Chizik’s first team allowed 27.5 ppg, followed by 24 ppg during their 14-0 national championship run. Yes, they won a lot of games during that stretch but that’s due almost entirely to their phenomenal and nearly unstoppable offense in 2010.

Obviously, it’s hard to judge whether Malzahn’s offense has a strong negative impact on his team’s defense based solely on his time at Auburn, since Ted Roof has been there the entire time as well. Let’s take a look at Malzahn’s previous stop, Tulsa.

In 2007 and 2008, a time span in which Malzahn’s offenses were among the nation’s best in almost every category, his team’s defenses surrendered 33 and 28 points per game, respectively. The year before Malzahn arrived, under the same defensive coordinator? 20 points per game.

Yes, Malzahn’s offenses are tremendously successful at racking up yards and putting points on the board. But I think it’s time that Auburn faces the fact that there is a sacrifice one is forced to make by running an offense like Malzahn’s and that sacrifice comes on the defensive side of the ball. That leaves a smaller margin of error for Auburn to succeed and if Malzahn’s offense can’t produce something in the neighborhood of 35 points per game, it appears highly unlikely they’ll be able to win consistently.

Ted Roof will likely be fired by the end of this season and the next defensive coordinator will likely bring some enthusiasm and optimism to Auburn’s eternally enthusiastic and optimistic fans. But what happens when that defensive coordinator can’t get his defenses to perform any better than Roof’s? At what point does Malzahn become more of a liability, a detriment to the balance of a team, than an asset?

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe it’s all on Roof, maybe it’s not Malzahn’s fault. One thing is for sure: where Malzahn goes, bad defense seems to follow.

Gameday Morning Thoughts - Week Three

Auburn at Clemson, 11 am ABC

They needed half a dozen nearly miraculous breaks to go their way but Auburn “found a way to win” once again last week in a game that many thought they would need to win to make it to a bowl game. It’s clear that Auburn’s offensive production appears to have not lost much steam but their defense has clearly lost the savage edge it had at times last season. Luckily for Auburn, they will be facing what is likely the weakest offense they have seen yet this season. Clemson struggled early against both Troy and Wofford and while Auburn has no experience when it comes to beating non-conference opponents on the road (their last non-conference road win was in 1997), I just don’t believe Clemson has the offensive firepower to keep up with Chizik’s Tigers.

Prediction: Auburn keeps rolling 34-24

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt, 11:20 am SEC Network

This is far from one of the year’s biggest interdivisional clashes but the Ole Miss-Vandy game does usually provide some excitement. The Commodores are coming off a “stunning” 2-0 start including a win over the now Edsall-less UConn Huskies while Ole Miss is 1-1 thanks to late game mistakes against BYU in the opener. Can Vanderbilt coach James Franklin keep the momentum going?

Prediction: No, he cannot. Ole Miss’ far superior lines dominate Vandy up front.

MIchigan State at Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC

The Irish are reeling after a devastatingly disappointing 0-2 start and there are signs that turmoil is taking over in the second year of Brian Kelley’s tenure. A win over the Spartans might be necessary to to prevent ND from going in the tank for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Michigan State could use a road win over Notre Dame to help prove that they still have some manhood.

Prediction: Notre Dame bounces back and gets a big, much-needed win at home.

Tennessee at Florida, 2:30 pm CBS

This is a must-watch if only because it’s the first CBS game of the year, though it probably wil be a good game. The Tennessee offense has been on fire through the first two games and while the Gators still have more talent, Tennessee’s offense could keep this thing interesting.

Prediction: The Gators pull out a tight one.

Ohio State at Miami, 6:30 pm ESPN

The IneligiBowl finds Miami in a slightly better position, with more of its suspended players back on the active roster than the Buckeyes. This game was slated as one of the biggest non-conference games of the year back in January but not many will see it as a relevant contest this weekend.

Prediction: Ohio State has looked mighty rough around the edges the first two weekends. I think Miami has enough speed and athleticism to take them down.

Oklahoma at Florida State, 7 pm ABC

The nation’s No. 1 team faces its biggest challenge of the season - in September! If the ‘Noles live up to their sizable hype, they could give us our first bona fide shakeup at the top of the poll this season.

Prediction: I’m going to bank on Florida State not being all the way back to elite status yet but I won’t be surprised if this one is still close in the fourth quarter.

North Texas at Alabama, 7 pm Fox Sports South

Coming off an impressive but very physical win over Penn State, the Tide returns home for what should be its least competitive game of the season. North Texas has been absolutely abysmal on defense so far this year and while Nick Saban said their offensive approach can be difficult to defend, I somehow doubt his defense is going to have much of a problem stopping the Mean Green.

Prediction: Alabama posts its first shut-out since 2009, 42-0.

SEC Race Beginning to Take Shape

 While it’s easy for an Alabama fan to feel as though the entire season is still ahead, the world has continued spinning while the Crimson Tide wades through its early season practice rounds. If you didn’t think the 2011 SEC season was in full swing yet, last night should be the only evidence you need. LSU’s brutal and physical clash with Mississippi State was the definition of mid-season SEC football, two teams out there fighting with desperation, playing as though something real was at stake.

We saw the same thing last week with the year’s first two league contests, Auburn vs. Mississippi State and Georgia vs. South Carolina. In both cases, the game came down to the wire, unpredictable happenings cropped up every other drive and young players made many of the game’s most crucial plays. That’s likely to happen in early season contests, as enthusiasm is high from the youngsters and teams have yet to really fall into a comfortable rhythm yet on both sides of the ball.

What have we learned from the first three games of SEC play? Well, for one we’ve learned that despite lots of promise and excitement, Mississippi State ain’t ready for primetime just yet. That doesn’t mean they aren’t going to beat anyone of significance this year, but when you have Auburn on the ropes and a fired up home environment against LSU and you can’t find a way to win either of those games (particularly the Auburn game), it’s a sign that you don’t have what it takes to compete at the highest level just yet. As well as Dan Mullen has done, there remains a significant talent gap between State and the rest of the SEC West (minus Ole Miss, of course). Mullen’s offensive brilliance can help make up that gap but until he has some true playmakers on the field, some real leadership on his offense, don’t expect to see anything extraordinary coming out of Starkville.

We’ve also learned that South Carolina, while a flawed and vulnerable team, has enough defensive talent to give any offense in America a nightmarish day. Their ability to create big plays on defense means they are almost never out of a game and winning a game like that on the road against a VERY motivated Georgia team counts for a lot in my book.

As for LSU, I’m not sure we know a whole heck of a lot about them except for one thing: they are physical. On offense and defense, LSU can dish out the punishment as well as take it and in order to get past them, every conference foe is going to have to match that intensity for four quarters. Mississippi State matched it for three and eventually, they couldn’t handle any more. If things continue on as they appear right now, LSU’s trip to Tuscaloosa in November could be a battle of mythic proportions.

We’ve still yet to see most of the league begin their conference schedules (everyone will at some point over the next two weeks) and the team we probably know the least about so far is the team most of the pundits have predicted to win the league - Alabama. This weekend’s contest with North Texas won’t likely tell us much more about the Tide. For that, we’ll likely need to wait for the Arkansas Razorbacks to visit Tuscaloosa next week.

Random Useless Knowledge - North Texas Edition

After a brief flirtation with relevant football (which lasted all the way until Alabama scored its first touchdown), Alabama returns to early season cupcakery with a bout against North Texas, or as Coach Saban apparently refers to them, North Texas State. The Mean Green could very likely be the worst opponent Alabama faces this year, and yes that includes Georgia Southern, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any interesting factoids to glean from this meeting. Here’s a look at my favorite tidbits from this week’s game notes:

• This will be the fourth meeting between Alabama and North Texas. Alabama has won the previous three meetings by a combined score of 124-33.
• Alabama is a perfect 14-0 in September since the 2008 season.
• The Crimson Tide also holds a stunning 21-1 record in Bryant-Denny Stadium dating back to the 2008 season. During that span, Alabama has given up just two rushing touchdowns in Bryant-Denny.
• Saturday’s game will mark Alabama’s first appearance on Fox Sports since 2006, when the Tide hosted Vanderbilt.
• Two games into the season, the leading tackler on the Tide defense remains true freshman linebacker Trey Depriest with 12 total tackles including a half-tackle for loss.
• The North Texas Mean Green gets its nickname from alumni and former NFL star “Mean” Joe Greene, who helped lead UNT to its most successful stretch in program history.
• Last week after dedicating its brand new home field Apogee Stadium, North Texas proceeded to surrender 690 yards to the Houston Cougars.
• North Texas head coach Dan McCarney previously served as assistant head coach to Urban Meyer at Florida. During his time with the Gators, McCarney’s Florida teams went 1-2 against the Tide.
• North Texas running back Lance Dunbar currently ranks third among all active rushers in the FBS. With 3,214 career yards, he trails only Boston College’s Montel Harris and Oregon’s LaMichael James.
• UNT junior wide receiver Chris Bynes is the brother of Auburn linebacker Josh Bynes.

Gameday Morning Thoughts - Week Two

As we head into our second college football Saturday of the year, we have a lot more to be excited about this week than we did in what was a rather dull opening weekend (dull by college football’s standards, anyway). Thursday and Friday of this week were occupied by college football’s version of Arena Football, otherwise known as non-conference games between the Big XII and Pac-12 (which may be the same thing in the near future) but today features some classic, old-school matchups that will make stodgy old college football purists like me happy even as we grumble about that Latino rapper ruining our Dr. Pepper commercials. Let’s get to it:

Mississippi State at Auburn, 11:20 am SEC Network

Mississippi State may have faced a MUCH weaker opponent in Week One than Auburn did but they sure looked a lot better than the defending national champs in their blowout win. Vic Ballard and Chris Relf may be the most experienced and dangerous backfield in the SEC West this year and if State can keep the throttle wide open on offense all day, it might only take a handful of stops by the Bulldog defense to seal a win. Auburn’s defense has a lot to prove today and if it can’t find a way to make big plays, Auburn’s offense, potent though it is, will start to feel pressure in a hurry.

Prediction: Mississippi State ends the Tigers’ phenomenal winning streak.

South Carolina at Georgia, 3:30 pm ESPN

After a humiliating opening weekend loss to Boise State on the Bulldogs’ home turf (let’s not kid ourselves), Mark Richt has his back against the wall. Georgia fans have been patient but they are growing restless and need to see that their coach can still bring out some fire from his group of extremely talented players. Meanwhile, South Carolina can smell blood in the water and sees this as an opportunity to assert themselves as the favorites to win the East once again.

Prediction: South Carolina tops the emotionally and mentally feeble Bulldogs and sets the wheels in motion for Mark Richt’s “resignation”.

Notre Dame at Michigan, 7 pm ESPN

Michigan hosts its first night game ever! Wow! Remember your first night game, Alabama fans? You don’t? Oh right, because it was in 1969. Welcome to the Summer of Love, Big Blue.

Prediction: Michigan sprints past a Notre Dame team that is in utter disarray internally after Brian Kelley’s sideline meltdown last weekend.

BYU at Texas, 6 pm ESPN

One week after a huge win on the road over Ole Miss, BYU heads to Austin to continue wrecking havoc on organized college football. The jury is still out on this whole independence experiment for the Cougars but a win over the Longhorns would be a huge stride towards legitimizing their status.

Prediction: The Stormin’ Mormons put up a good effort but the Longhorn offense will be too much for them to keep pace with.

Alabama at Penn State, 2:30 pm ABC

Last year’s meeting between these two traditional non-conference rivals was a massacre and seems to have led to a certain lack of respect for the Nittany Lions among the Crimson Tide fanbase. There is no doubt that Alabama was a better team last year than Penn State was but the Lions were likely at their absolute worst in Tuscaloosa that day and while the Tide was at its peak. Both teams are fielding inexperienced quarterbacks (possibly two of them per team) and both return a good bit of experience on the defensive side of the ball. I expect the score to stay low early as both offenses try to stay conservative and avoid big mistakes.

Prediction: Alabama pulls away in the second half to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 28-10.

Game Breakdown - Alabama 48, Kent State 7

As I’ve waited until pretty late in the week to get this up, I’ll try to have some original thoughts that you haven’t heard 10 times already from the other analysts.

For one, while it seems like the quarterback battle took a major turn towards AJ McCarron last Saturday, I’d say this thing is still far from over. I doubt you’re going to see the same 3-series-at-a-time structure to the offensive gameplan this week as I’m not sure that gives the offense the property opportunity to establish a rhythm in a game that must be taken seriously regardless of last year’s result. I believe McCarron earned the right to start in the Penn State game by making fewer mistakes and showing a better rapport and sense of timing with the receiving corps but that doesn’t mean that Phillip Sims can’t learn from and improve upon his debut performance. If Sims learns from his mistakes and makes the necessary improvements this week, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t still be under consideration as a long-term starter. I think you’ll see Sims play this week but probably a little bit less than you saw of him last week and I think he’ll be brought into the game during a less predictable and perhaps more appropriate point in the action.

Alabama’s running back group needed to prove that it could spell Trent Richardson without much dropoff and as it turns out, production went up a good bit when Richardson came out of the game. A lot of that had to do with the Tide’s playcalling, which was designed to go a bit easy on Richardson this week and to test Eddie Lacey and Jalston Fowler a bit more, but both backups showed they can not only be productive and tough runners but home-run hitters as well.

The defensive fronts were the story of this game, on both sides. Obviously, Alabama’s was a bit more noticeable and absolutely shredded Kent State’s vastly overmatched offensive line. Don’ta Hightower and Courtney Upshaw showed their speed and raw power and essentially got to the quarterback any time they wanted to. Meanwhile new names like Jesse Williams and Quinton Dial both made strong debuts and showed they could have a major impact this season at least in terms of providing depth up front. But Kent State’s defensive line was nothing to sneeze at. At times, they seemed to have Alabama’s highly-touted O-line out of synch, with Roosevelt Nix blowing past William Vlachos on multiple occasions while Chance Warmack, Cyrus Kouandjio and DJ Fluker all had less than impressive moments of their own during the course of the game. Overall, the Tide offensive line asserted its physical dominance in the end but there were certainly more than a few individual plays in which Kent State got the better of them.

In all, I don’t think there’s tremendous cause for concern in any phase of the game, though it would have been nice to see a receiver other than Marquis Maze make a few more plays (the additions of Darius Hanks and Duron Carter could change that soon). I don’t expect Penn State to have significantly better talent than last year and while their home atmosphere can be intimidating, another strong performance from Alabama’s defense and a tighter, more disciplined game from its offense should be enough to win fairly easily at Beaver Stadium.

Random Useless Knowledge - Penn State Edition

With a week of stats on the board now, we’ve got even more useless knowledge to season our brains with here in Week Two. We now present the Penn State Edition of Random Useless Knowledge:

• This game marks the 15th meeting between Alabama and Penn State. Joe Paterno has been the head coach of Penn State for 13 of the previous 14 meetings.
• Alabama leads the all-time series 9-5, including a 3-2 advantage in Beaver Stadium.
• The Crimson Tide currently leads the nation in rushing defense after holding Kent State to -9 yards on the ground, and second in the nation in total defense after giving up just 90 total yards.
• In its last two games, the Alabama defense has allowed -57 rushing yards on 51 attempts. That’s an average of -1.11 yards per carry.
• Alabama and Penn State are two of just 8 teams in the FBS that have notched 800 all-time victories. Penn State has 819 wins in its program’s history while the Tide has 803.
• Penn State holds an active 23-game non-conference home winning streak, second in the nation only to the Florida Gators. The Nittany Lions have not lost a non-conference game in Beaver Stadium since falling to Boston College in 2003.
• Penn State has a winning or even record against every team they have ever played against in the SEC (9 of the 12) except for Alabama.
• Alabama has an 18-11 record against current Big Ten teams. 14 of those games have come against Penn State.
• This game will cap off a series that was originally scheduled to be played in the 2004 and ‘05 seasons. Alabama requested that the series be delayed following their NCAA sanctions received in 2002.
• Tide quarterback Phillip Sims will face off against his former teammate from Oscar F. Smith High School, Penn State defensive tackle Evan Hailes.
• This weekend’s game will be Joe Paterno’s 541st game as head coach of Penn State.

What Did We Learn This Week?

So what did we learn in Week One of the 2011 college football season?

It’s been a long offseason and everyone is itching to start putting the whole picture together and make assumptions about the way the rest of the season will play out. The fact is you can’t extrapolate trends out of 1/12th of the season and even if you could, you’d be using the one week that gives us the least accurate picture of any individual week in the season. As the ancient adage goes, teams make their biggest improvements between the first and second game and with months of preparation time, the playing field is never more level between the favorites and the underdogs than it is in Week One.

This week was about survival. If you could play poorly and work some kinks out while still crushing your opponent 49-7 as Alabama did against Kent State, great. Most teams weren’t so lucky. Kentucky, Auburn and South Carolina all survived scares against vastly inferior teams while elsewhere in the country ranked teams already began to fall with TCU and Notre Dame both going down in upsets. Then there’s Oregon State losing to FCS school Sacramento State, Indiana falling to Ball State, and Duke going down to the Richmond Spiders. Yes, those are three bad programs but they all lost to teams that should be at a major disadvantage when it comes to talent.

So are all these teams that lost to or struggled against inferior teams in for terrible seasons? Some of them are, but some will get better - some will get a LOT better. Let’s take Auburn, for example. It’s certainly not an encouraging sign to watch Utah State’s offense, led by a freshman quarterback, march their way down the field for 38 points. We’re not talking about 38 fluke points either, those were earned points against an Auburn defense that absolutely could not stop the Aggie offense, particularly the running game. That’s especially disturbing since as bad as Auburn’s defense was they still led the SEC in rushing defense a year ago, perhaps the one saving grace defensively that allowed them to skirt by in so many close games on the way to their national championship. Is Auburn’s defense doomed? Definitely not. It’s a young team with some inexperienced but talented starters in key positions (not unlike Alabama’s offense). There’s a great chance that they get better as the year goes on and find a way to lower the bar for their offense.

That said, Utah State is likely among the worst defenses Auburn will face this year. The Auburn offense won’t have it nearly as easy for the majority of their remaining schedule and will absolutely need their defense to come through for them in order to continue pulling out miraculous wins at the last minute.

The same is true for every team that was able to squeak out a close win this weekend against a team that had no business hanging with them. On the one hand, you can excuse some rust. On the other hand, it had BETTER just be rust because most of these teams won’t face an easier opponent for the rest of the year.

Gameday Morning Thoughts - Week One

Last night finally treated us to our first taste of REAL football in 2011 with Baylor’s thrilling upset win over TCU, an event that makes snobby, elitist fans like me breathe a sigh of relief that we’ve got one less ‘aw shucks’ little guy we have to hear whine at the end of the season about not getting a shot at the national title.

Sadly, opening weekend this year is a little light on the heavy-hitting matchups that have made the last few years so dramatic and fun from Day One but we’ll get just enough of a taste of the good stuff to get the wheels of the 2011 season in motion. Here are some thoughts and picks on the biggest games of the day (all times are central, the only time zone that matters in college football):

Northwestern at Boston College, 11 am ESPNU

Neither of these teams figure to be terribly relevant this year but if I were a typical college fan who didn’t care about watching Bama and Auburn churn through their cupcake games, I’d start my day off with this gem between two old-school style programs. Lots of injuries and unpredictable factors playing in so I expect a tight finish.

Prediction: Northwestern in a close one.

South Florida at Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC

The Fighting Irish won a bowl game, their first bowl win outside of Hawaii since 1994, which of course means Irish fans everywhere are in a tizzy about “waking up the echoes” and other such ancient hymns. The truth here is that Notre Dame, while better than they were during the Weisz era, is still a team loaded with largely upper-mid tier talent. They are not a juggernaut. Skip Holtz brings in a tremendously athletic USF squad fully capable of upsetting teams far more talented than them (see: Miami Hurricanes, end of Randy Shannon’s career). Notre Dame has decent preseason positioning in the polls but an opening week upset would knock all that inflated media hype right out of their sails. Big game for both programs but more at risk for ND.

Prediction: Notre Dame pulls it off but gets pushed by the Bulls and perhaps even has a few key weaknesses exposed and exploited along the way.

South Carolina vs. East Carolina (Charlotte, NC), 

We’ll never know the intricate inner workings of the South Carolina football program but one has to wonder what kind of wrought, intense and dramatic tension builds everyday inside a program dealing with a leader who mocks the rules designed for success. Or dealing with bring a young quarterback with very limited experience being thrust into a role not because I won the job fair and square but because the first game made a mistake. What if I make a mistake? Is my job gone too? Stephen Spurrier’s torturous and sadomasochist management of the quarterback situation is going to hurt him - maybe not today but against an SEC opponent with a good understanding of what these two young men may be going through.

Prediction: South Carolina has enough to get it done but if things start to look peculiar early on, don’t think this can’t turn into a Baylor-TCU shocker in its own right.

Boise State vs. Georgia (Atlanta), 7 pm ESPN

“America’s Sweetheart” has pulled off some major upsets in the past half decade but in some ways, beating Georgia tonight would be their biggest win yet. It’s a chance to beat an SEC team on what is essentially their home turf. Beating Oklahoma and Virginia Tech are both big deals but the perception that comes with beating an SEC team, even if it’s a middle-of-the-pack SEC team, is enormous and would make it extremely difficult for SEC fans to continue claiming Boise couldn’t hang in their league. It’s a huge moment for Boise and a huge moment for the SEC and for those who want college football power remaining in the hands of the elite.

Prediction: Georgia’s offense is loaded with young talent and while they’ll need things to click early, the Georgia defense will create some opportunities by throwing Boise some heat they aren’t used to seeing.

Oregon vs. LSU (Dallas), 7 pm ABC

The undisputed “Game of the Week” has the national runners-up facing off against one of the SEC’s top candidates for this year’s reserved national title game spot. Both programs have been through enormous turmoil this offseason but LSU takes the misery cake, losing their starting QB and one of their top offensive playmakers to suspensions just days before the start of the season. Perhaps the most underrated loss the Tigers have suffered is the loss of returning starting left guard Josh Dworaczyk. If LSU can continue to put up points on the Ducks despite their offensive losses, they can pull this off because their defense is strong enough to hold the high flying Oregon offense in check.

Prediction: LSU is the luckiest team in college football. They find a way, probably due to Les Miles doing something stupid that somehow works out anyway. This one stays close though.

Kent State at Alabama, 11:20 am SEC Network

The Crimson Tide have plenty to sort out early on in the season but don’t expect them to throw the kitchen sink at Kent State. Nick Saban will keep his offensive goodies to himself as much as possible so we’ll likely see a run-heavy, very vanilla offense that may struggle a bit out of the gate. I’d expect a frustratingly low offensive output for most of the first half but once things click for the Tide (and once the Kent State defenders start to wear down, which will be early), Alabama will run away with it and put up the kind of score a national title contender needs to put up against Kent State.

Prediction: Alabama wins it 41-6.